I don’t want to be a buzz-kill, but it’s time to inject a little bit of reality into the China market debate that seems to be raging all over the internet (Somebody had to do it, and I’ve got a little time this morning. You’re welcome.)

• China is not going to take over the world tomorrow.
• China is not a bubble that is going to fade away.

It is a large developing market of round 4-600 million people on the coast of China . It is going to be extremely important for the rest of our business lives. It is a world class production center, and a very important market for finished goods and some raw materials. There is no appreciable service sector. The Chinese are great some things, weak at others, and working hard to improve across the spectrum. Let’s all just get a grip.

For you China Cheerleaders and know-it-all Chundits ( China Pundits):

Take a pill and relax.
I know about Haier. I know about Huawei. Yeah, the same with TCL. These are manufacturing stories. If you haven’t factored in that China is a leading production center by now, you need to poke your head out of the cave. Lenova buying IBM does not signal anything about the China economy other than the fact that Lenova bought IBM.

Talk to me about the service sector.
That’s when I’ll get anxious about the China juggernaut putting a dent in the western lifestyle. Until China cranks up its IP machine and can make it pay, I don’t want to hear any more hyperventilating about China Inc. taking over the world. I’ve done my time in Taiwan and Japan . Heard it all before.

Stop trying to invent a China Management Model.
Stop trying to back every weird organizational quirk into a brilliant grand strategy. It isn’t there. The large organizations are still trying to shake off the post Cultural Revolution operating restrictions held over from the days when Chinese SOEs were governed by social orientations and not market orientations. They are desperately trying to impose the same kind of management structures and control mechanisms that Western companies are supposed to have.

If you ever listen to a clued-in Chinese manager in his 30s, he’ll tell you the same thing. That’s why there are so many Chinese managers in MBA and EMBA programs – to learn about international management best practices. (By the way – telling Chinese management teams how wonderful they are is a lousy way to win management consulting contracts. Try a ‘tough-love’ thing.)

Write this next bit down: When you say “inscrutable”, we all hear indecisive, inconsistent, and maybe even dishonest. Breaking an agreement is breaking an agreement. Anywhere. You think Chinese victims of Chinese fraud shrug it off and say, “why, that Mr. Chen certainly is inscrutable!” ? Why do you think that developing the legal system is such a high priority? Stop making excuses for individuals who are simply wrong. Most Chinese are honest and try their best to honor their word. Stop using bad sociology to excuse the behavior of a few assholes.

Yeah, there are lots and lots of MBAs.
But counting MBAs is just the modern equivalent of counting coal-cars. It gives you a very broad picture of an economy, but doesn’t really tell you much. We were never too excited about the raw number of MBAs back home, and I don’t see why we should get too excited about it here.

And all you Casandra’s who can’t wait to see the China Market Crash:

China is not a bubble.
Real estate prices went up quickly, but they have already started coming down – in a controlled sell-off – in many places. The infrastructure is good, the market mechanisms are functioning and people really do “get it”. Enough already with the Chicken Little thing. The sky is not falling, and neither is the market.

This is one of the best government’s around.
I know. It hurts to hear. It hurts to say, too. But it’s true. They’ve shown a willingness to do the hard things. Foreign investment seems to be protected. The legal system is developing at a steady pace. What nation’s people have benefited more in the last 25 years – and through 3 successive governments? Besides, look at what you’ve got back home. Are you really the one to pass judgment? I know I’m not.

Consumerism is a good goal for the 21 st century.
You make snide comments because the kids are fat in Shanghai and Beijing . The kids are fat in the US and Europe , too. What would you say if the kids were skinny? That the parents can’t feed them?

‘The Chinese spoil their children.’
You want to hear what my brother’s kids got for Christmas? All parents and grandparents spoil kids. It’s part of the job description.

‘The Chinese are becoming gross over-consumers.‘
Go to a mall back home for a day. Stop being a hypocrite. Gross over-consumption is always ugly and sinful, unless you are the one doing the consuming.

This is the most open economy for a developing market ever.
Taiwan , Korea , Japan – during their development stages, they were like armed camps compared to China . There has never been a business opportunity like the China market. That’s why we’re here. Is there bureaucracy, red tape and corruption? Welcome to the modern world, honey. Ask a haigui (returning Chinese) about the visa and residency requirements in the US or the EU. I didn’t have to line up to be interviewed before I got my China visa, did you?

Yes, the work force here needs more careful managing here than back home.
Workers here can be expensive, infuriating, incompetent and disloyal. But so is the workforce back home. It’s a different kind of frustration, that’s all. Train more, supervise more, and decide who you want to hold on to and make it worthwhile for them to stay (think ‘job title’, not just pay raise).

I know that there are too many MBAs who can’t really do much.
I got my MBA in NY in the late 80s. It’s déjà vu all over again. Strangers literally sneered at me when I told them. But over time, the general improvement in business training filters in to the economy. Now you all hate know-nothing MBAs. 5 years from now you will be hating the know-it-all MBAs.

In conclusion:

25 years into the market opening, we are ahead of schedule on some things, behind on others.

Japan , Taiwan , and Korea – they all followed a similar pattern. The potential market is huge, but so is the pool of potential competitors. In short, the China market will continue to be important and provide many opportunities. China managers and Chundits ( China pundits) need to get a grip on reality. Like any business opportunity, the winners in China will be clear-headed optimists who can focus on their market segments and execute consistently. So — No more gushing, no more whining.