Ok – so the rosy GDP figures coming out of the US last week don’t hold up to close scrutiny. 3.5% growth was largely smoke & mirrors – clunker cash & bailouts. But what would happen to US-China relations if the US really were to start a full-on recovery?

The only thing American’s like better than being perceived as top-dog is being perceived as the underdog. And if we can have it both ways at the same time, well that’s cause for forgetting all about the recent past and focusing on the completely unrealistic fantasy future we accept as Destiny. So what if the 3.5% GDP number turns out to be real, and the US is truly in recovery mode?

Well the rest of the world better get ready cuz we are SOOO done with all of this self-reflective apologizing nonsense. The US is getting ready to get busy again.

5 things to know about a real US recovery.

1. We did it by ourselves. No one helped us when we needed help, even though we always help others. Moral high ground intact? Check. Rugged individualism fully puffed? Check. Amnestic, self-delusional defenses fully charged? Check.

2. Everyone still whining about the dollar can just go back to trading fish for seashells for all we care. Seriously – if you have better options than the greenback then knock yourselves out. China talked loud about the RMB as an international currency - until about 2 minutes after the rest of the world showed interest. A freely convertible, floating rumba is about the last thing that the financial policy people in Beijing want. It was a bluff that got called by the likes of Brazil and OPEC – by accident. Boy howdy, did THAT story leave the headlines in a hurry.

3. Obama is a Chicago politician who has some proving to do. He’s hurt, he’s humbled and he’s been screwed over. Now you’ll see what how a Chicago ward boss moves when he’s been dropped with a cheap shot. They are harder to kill than werewolves and twice as mean when you cross them. He apologized, he stuck out his hand, and you all spit in it. Yeah, I’m talking to you WJB. You get me Europe? It’s on.

4. Wall St may be the same again, but Main Street won’t be. Our gross over-consumption will be slightly less gross in the future. I’m not talking thrift or fiscally responsible - but if your big move is exporting to Wal-Mart at 2% margins then the future may not be bright enough for your $3.99 shades. “Jobless recovery” is a euphemism for “the US middle class just got smaller again”. It’ll be years before consumption patterns return to 2007 levels – if ever. (Ok – so it’ll only be 18 months from the start of a sustained recovery. But that’s still a long time for manufacturers.)

5. China is SOOO on the ‘frenemies’ list. Currency, quality, imports, military build-up – expect to hear about all of it in the 2011 campaigns. We learned that China is not going to stand up for us in a pinch. It turns out that we’re not mutually respecting buddies with gruff exteriors - we’re the tough guy and China is the cheap shot artist.

Of course, if this turns out to be a one-off dead cat bounce and the Christmas retail numbers tank, then you can expect us to turn all humble & multi-cultural again. Go Green!

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This entry was posted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 at 9:25 am and is filed under Managing in China, Recovery Now. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.