SuperPower Watch: Humility is Hot as China Steps Up
Humble is hot in China. From Wen Jiabao’s rockin’ apology over an insignificant misstatement with Brit school kids to the 5-Star expat conference circuit in Beijing, anyone in China who matters is vying to out-humble everyone else.
China has always had a split personality when it comes to the image it projects – on the one hand the Middle Kingdom floated above and apart from the barbarian hordes (i.e.: Caucasians) while on the other hand it was a Confucian society with 3rd world economic woes. Even as China was basking in the hot throbby glow of its economic miracle, there was hesitation to step up and assume the mantle of Superpower status. Ask a local if China was a superpower, and he’d pretend to be shocked. “Important manufacturing center, maybe – but world superpower? Not for many many years - if ever.”
Well, those days are behind us. In the 21st century, Superpowers are super-humble.
Maybe it’s a Tao thing, but you can gauge China’s true feelings about itself as a direct inverse of the picture it presents to the outside world. When China couldn’t feed itself Xinhua headlines bristled with belligerent threats and Olympian claims. Now that China is one of the top powers left standing, it is dialing down the rhetoric as it amps up the pressure on the rest of the world.
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1) Don’t believe the hype. In ChinaWorld, black is white and up is down. When your Chinese hosts play the self-effacing student all it really means is that they know where to stick the knife for maximum effect. Westerners thump their chest, Chinese look down and smile.
2) Structure your deals smart. A confident China talks win-win, but moves win-lose. China isn’t good at parity – it understands Mandate of Heaven, and it can endure the humiliation of occupation. Anything in between is just a transition. Right now China Inc feels it is transitioning to its rightful place at the top of the food chain. If you offer the typical – ‘I’ll invest now and reap the reward later’ US-Sino JV structure, you’re going to get killed.
3) New definition of international. As Chinese business projects more power overseas we’re already seeing the rules shift. It’s easy to recognize on the macro level with loose dollar talk, all-or-nothing resource buyouts and unsavory oil deals – but you’ll also see it closer to home. I’m hearing that HK arbitration clauses are getting pushed back, and technology transfers are getting discounted to 0 again. New China is bureaucrats with MBAs.
4) No grudge like an old grudge. Nothing is forgiven. The ugly side of guanxi is the indelible enemies list. Chinese businessmen are obligated to remember each favor ever done – but they relish recalling every slight and embarrassment going back to the days of the Yellow Emperor. You may not have sold the opium or sacked the palace, but you’ll do. China is still pissed off that it had to pretend not to be pissed off for the last 30 years.
5) Pendulums swing. Don’t get caught on the wrong side of the big ones. When Japan fell it was quick and ugly – but they were ostensibly an ally even as they were engaged in economic warfare. China is not. Right now the party is still hottin’ up and the cognac is flowing free. Just make sure you don’t do or say anything that you’ll have trouble explaining in a post-recovery world where your banker is Hailin’ Palin.
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