Obama won. That’s good. US manufacturing AND the service sector are reporting the worst numbers in decades. That would be the bad.

America is being admired again. Yesterday in Shanghai I saw more expats wearing hats and t-shirts with flags and American images than I’ve seen in years. It’s nice to be well thought of again. Enjoy it while it lasts.

We’ll all come back from Christmas and/or Chinese New Year to a new US administration, a new world, and a new beginning. But the rest of the 4th Quarter is still business as usual.

What will a new administration mean to your business?

Probably not that much. The US economy is so bombed out that even if a strong recovery were to begin tomorrow the first half would still be a disaster – at least for the China businesses servicing US or international companies and their China branches. The stock markets are volatile, but industrial figures are consistently negative. China is almost certainly going to be dragged down – the only question is by how much.

One thing to look out for – Democrats tend to favor trade restrictions a bit more than the other guys and China is an easy target. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has suddenly become the second most powerful person in the US – and she is not a friend of China. This is probably more of a medium-term issue than a ringing alarm bell, but we can expect the occassional bout of fireworks between Washington and Beijing. Google Pelosi, China if you don’t know what I mean.

As usual, The Onion proves that it truly is the World’s Finest News Source. Read it.

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